Who’s the enemy?
Al-Qaida (The Base) + Islamic State (IS) have declared war on “infidels”. Though, the infidels are not only the Western world and NATO is not the only defendant. They’re trans-national, so most countries are left alone to fight them as long as there exists no international co-operation.
Al-Qaida has been in effect for a long time and have credentials and are the big boss of IS. Taliban doesn’t exist anymore, because we predict that they will all become IS. Because, all the jihadists want the same thing – a unified caliphat for all Moslems. A lot of groups and tribes in Africa are also jihadists. There are more of them than the official governments will admit, that’s why IS was able to grow big in Syria and Iraq.
They’re more professional than people think. They are mostly ex-soldiers and have access to heavy arms. They know how to use modern electronics for communication, scamming and propaganda. They have no borders and operate independently of national limits. They can co-operate through their fellowship of jihadists and are not limited by modern international laws. We predict that all these factions will become united. The jihadists are still labelled as “terrorists”, despite that they’re actually soldiers and can be viewed as coming from an own, big country.
NATO is obsolete
There was no winner or loser of the Cold War. After the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO crumbled down into sleeping mode as a non-operative military treaty. The golden chance to end the last lingering conflicts was available, though the shutting down of the archaic NATO-system didn’t happen due to declaring themselves as the winner.
The notion of “global war on terror” after 9/11, was invalidly used to invoke NATO’s article 5. Even if USA deemed it an act of war, it was still a terrorist attack, so they should have gone to Afghanistan alone, at least to begin with. Even if USA is not the aggressor, they’re partially responsible for sparking the war, though it’s the United Nations who’s the true culprit, because they authorised ISAF and the Iraq War Coalition.
The “new NATO” in modern times has spent too much money on an unseen enemy. Their efforts to expand themselves has just made Russia into a doll-enemy who are not a threat to the western bloc. NATO is like an enormous roundabout who’s running circles around itself with no real enemy.
NATO is unable to enter the individual nation states where their enemy resides. This is a big planet and moving troops around is a difficult task. NATO has to rely on partnerships with non-members and individual countries should send soldiers, though not in the name of NATO. That’s why we argue that NATO is obsolete.
We predict that NATO will soon become a dummy organisation and unable to support it’s members. Defendant countries have to form alternative partnerships, in order to build an international alliance.
Why Russia will be neutral with the jihadists
By Western standards, Russia is not a rich country. Even though they have upgraded their armed forces during the past ten years, they can’t afford a long term war. Most of their military are already stationed around and in Ukraine, so they have little personnel available in the long run. Russia can’t risk an attack from jihadists in Afghanistan and other countries around their south and eastern borders.
Russia is too weak to risk a full blown conflict with NATO, even with co-operation from their newfound partner – China. China will not physically help against NATO, though their support is a psychological asset. Russia knows that it’s best to keep within it’s own territory, because they are already surrounded by various external military powers.
The era of the Soviet Union is over. Russia has no imperial interests around the world. The need to secure the communist regime is no longer there and they have focused on their own prosperity after the Cold War. Their internal problems are too important to ignore and must be fixed before a war is endurable. Their unstable government has to make sure it will be in power for a long time and therefore will focus on domestic issues.
As long as Russia is not a dictatorship, they will act in their own interest and be as little aggressive as possible. The recent Russian actions in Ukraine don’t change our arguments, which are based on a global vision and the conflict is local.
Peking Duck
Chinese propaganda works better than Joseph Goebbels. That’s why their selfish lies are so difficult to see through.
China’s government acts like some type of political advisor for the jihadist regime in Afghanistan, who’s building a modern military force. We predict that it’s only a matter of time before Beijing will assist with this, too. That’s why we claim that China will not be neutral.
Infiltrated Homelands
There’s both soldiers and non-soldiers, spying abroad their territories. These agents are not provocative to the general public. They know about the idea of “When you’re in Rome, act like the Romans.” They have money and wear nice clothing. They are not direct combatants, they just give moral support and gather information. They understand the risk of being exposed, though they are not scared of the harsh terror laws.
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